Virginia’s high-stakes governor race is set for 2025

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A smattering of high-stakes elections so far in 2025 has reignited election fever. Yet the year’s banner race is still to come. 

Voters in Virginia will head to the polls this November to pick a new governor. Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, and Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, have each already locked down their parties’ nominations. 

The Commonwealth is heralded as a national bellwether, like clockwork every four years. Held in the odd year after the presidential election since 1869, Virginia’s gubernatorial race is a cyclical scorecard for voters’ moods and the issues at the forefront of the national consciousness. 

This year, though, “feels different,” political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University Alex Keena told USA TODAY. 

“There’s so much uncertainty,” Keena said, adding, “The Democrats nationally have this identity crisis. And Republicans too are kind of at a crossroads. The candidates reflect these conflicts.” 

Erin Restel, a 42-year-old former teacher, was Spanberger’s congressional constituent for six years and said Spanberger was the first Democrat she ever voted for. Amid turbulence in both parties, Restel told USA TODAY her former congresswoman offers her some optimism. 

“Right now, the Republicans seem to be running on, ‘Let’s just make Virginia like America and go crazy.’ And then you have some Democrats who are ready to like, ‘Let’s tear it all down because we’re so angry,'” Restel said. “(Spanberger) is going to cut through the noise and get stuff done for Virginia.” 

Democrats expect President Donald Trump and his decisions next door in Washington, including slashes to the federal workforce and economy-threatening tariffs, to cast a shadow on the state’s contest, already in full swing. 

Karl Nichols, 61, voted for Trump in 2024 and for Virginia’s Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2021. During Youngkin’s campaign four years ago, Nichols, a Republican in Fredericksburg, Virginia, said his wife met Earle-Sears − now they “just love her.”

“She’s got the same mind as the governor,” he told USA TODAY.

Primaries not needed 

Spanberger and Earle-Sears can both skip competing in a primary and will instead head straight into the general face-off. 

Spanberger announced her campaign for governor back in November 2023 and was named her party’s official nominee earlier in April after no other candidates filed to run against her in the June Democratic primary. 

A former CIA officer, Spanberger served three terms in Congress as a representative for the state’s 7th Congressional District, spanning parts of central and northern Virginia. She was the first Democrat to represent the district, redrawn after her second term, since 1970, and while in the House, she honed her reputation as a centrist.

She faces Earle-Sears, currently second in the gubernatorial line of succession, who announced her campaign last September. Earle-Sears was elected lieutenant governor in 2021, alongside Youngkin. 

Two GOP contenders had mounted campaigns to challenge Earle-Sears for the nomination, but both fell short of getting the required number of signatures to make the ballot. 

Why isn’t Glenn Youngkin running again? 

Simply put, he can’t. At least not this year. 

Virginia law bars any governor from serving back-to-back terms, and it is the only state with such a rule. 

Youngkin, about to wrap up his first four years in the governor’s mansion, would be able to come back and run for a second term in 2029, if he wanted.

Seven months to Election Day. A year and half to midterms. 

Election Day in Virginia is Nov. 4, 2025. And with both parties’ primaries rendered unnecessary, the state is gearing up for a prolonged general. 

“Tons of commercials, tons of flyers and spending,” Keena said, “and people will probably get tired of it by the time we get to November.” 

Even before nominations were officially set, Earle-Sears appeared locked in on Spanberger, penning a steady stream of social media posts calling out the Democrat by name. 

“The stakes in this race couldn’t be higher,” Earle-Sears said in a statement. “We’ve delivered important progress over the past four years, and we still have so much more to do.” 

Nationally, Republicans hope to build on their momentum coming out of a successful 2024, while Democrats in need of good news will be watching Spanberger expectantly. Historically, the party that loses the presidential race tends to fare better the following year in Virginia. 

The outcome between the two candidates in the Commonwealth is not the only thing of national interest, though. Virginia’s elections have also served as a barometer for the hot-button issues shaping swing voters’ decisions. 

In September 2021, a flashpoint in Youngkin’s race against former Gov. Terry McAuliffe came when the Democratic nominee answered, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” Youngkin made that moment and critical race theory, or the teaching of diversity, equity and inclusion, focal points in the final sprint of his campaign.

A year later, those same social issues were potent in the 2022 midterm elections. 

Trump’s shadow over Virginia race

Already looming are moves by the president to shrink the federal government – a major employer in Virginia – and escalating trade war that is raising concerns about a recession. 

Spearheaded by the president’s billionaire ally Elon Musk and his Department of Government Efficiency, the Trump administration has laid off tens of thousands of federal workers from various agencies and departments since the start of his second term, in a purported effort to curb government spending. 

The cuts stand to have an outsized impact in Virginia, neighbor to the nation’s capital and home to over 140,000 federal employees at the end of 2024.

Spanberger’s campaign said she has been hearing from voters on the campaign trail about the issue, along with Trump’s tariff-incited global trade war. 

“Virginia families are struggling to keep up with high prices, and imposing hundreds of billions of dollars in new tariffs will not lower costs,” Spanberger said in a statement. “Virginians deserve certainty, not chaos.” 

Democrats in the state have banked on anti-Trump sentiment before, crediting the presidential backlash for Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam’s win in 2017.  

However, Keena said that strategy may not be as effective this time around. 

“People are kind of getting tired of that,” he said. “They want an alternative that isn’t just about fear of Trump.” 

History made in 2025 

Regardless of which party’s nominee wins in November, Virginia will have its first female governor. If Earle-Sears win, the country will have its first Black female governor. 

Yet neither candidate is calling much attention to that fact. 

“To me that’s a sign of incredible progress, that it’s kind of just a normal thing,” Keena said. 

“But I also think there’s strategic reasons why none of them really want to make that the focus of the race,” he added. “Spanberger doesn’t really have an advantage in that particular aspect, and I think Sears probably wouldn’t want to have the race be too much about her race.” 

Four years ago, Earle-Sears became Virginia’s first female lieutenant governor, as well as the first woman of color elected to statewide office in the Commonwealth. 

As the state and race garners national attention for a variety of reasons, Earle-Sears said she is staying focused on the ground game.

“In the Marines we learned to stay laser focused on our mission, and so I’m not going to be distracted by political punditry,” the lieutenant governor said in a statement to USA TODAY. “The energy and attention I’m focused on is from the overwhelming number of Virginia families, businesses, and workers who want to keep our Commonwealth moving in the right direction.”

Fundraising records surpassed on both sides 

Both campaigns have boasted record-breaking fundraising, and each are touting what it means for their grassroots support. 

Spanberger’s campaign has raked in $6.7 million since the start of the year, the largest haul of any statewide candidate in Virginia in the first quarter of an election year, according to the campaign. 

More than 90% of those contributions were amounts of $100 or less, the campaign said. 

Also in April, Earle-Sears announced a $3.1 million dollar intake in 2025. Her campaign said the amount is a fundraising record, excluding self-funding, for any GOP gubernatorial candidate in Virginia. 

Youngkin in 2021 raised $2.2 million in contributions, but the millionaire investor bolstered his war chest with $5.5million of his own money, according to the Virginia Department of Elections. 

What are polls already saying? 

A handful of early statewide polls show Spanberger holding a slight advantage over Earle-Sears.  

Spanberger was ahead by 5 points in Christopher Newport University poll in January. At the time, 16% of those polled said they were undecided. 

In another survey, by Roanoke College in February, Spanberger’s lead was even greater, 15 points above Earle-Sears. However, a third of registered voters said they had not settled on a candidate yet. 

The tilt towards Spanberger may be a product of greater name recognition, Keena said, and with several months to go, the door is open for either candidate. 

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