Wisconsin Supreme Court race attracts wealthy partisan donors
Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race has become the country’s most expensive judicial election ever. Billionaire Elon Musk is the biggest spender.
What’s there to be nervous about?
Donald Trump and his Republican allies have largely had their way since returning to power, but there are reported jitters as Democrats are hoping to find a chink or two in his armor through a handful of upcoming special elections across the country that could either extend or halt the president’s winning streak.
It’s been a rough go for Trump’s foes since last fall. Democrats can’t seem to agree on how to combat the president or come up with a clear counter message to combat the MAGA populism dominating Washington.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week, for instance, shows Trump’s presidential approval rating remains at a steady 45%, which is higher than it was for much of his first term in office.
That figure is holding despite efforts by Democrats—who are suffering through record low approval ratings—and their partners who spotlighted Trump 2.0 firing large swaths of the federal workforce, attacking the judiciary for unfavorable rulings and shaking up decades-old foreign relationships.
But coming out of a week that saw the Trump administration’s embarrassing “Signalgate” fumble where top defense and intelligence officials discussing sensitive attack plans in a group chat that included a journalist, Democrats see a glimmer of light.
Pennsylvania upset ignites Dems optimism
Part of what has cheered Democrats up as of late were a pair of March victories in two Pennsylvania state legislative races that restored their majority in the statehouse and delivered a major upset in a district Trump won comfortably last fall.
National Democrats were particularly bullish about East Petersburg Mayor James Malone’s stunning victory by less than a percentage point over Republican Joshua Parsons, who campaigned as a Trump ally in Lancaster County, which is about 60 miles west of Philadelphia.
A Democrat hasn’t won that seat since 1979 and a presidential contender hasn’t been successful there since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, according to Democratic Party officials. Trump carried it by 57% in November.
“Democrats are building back power at the grassroots as voters join us in fighting against the Trump-Musk agenda,” Libby Schneider, a DNC deputy executive director, said in a March 26 memo provided to USA TODAY. “…Republicans are spiraling as they sweat and lose elections they assumed would be cakewalks.”
GOP favored in Florida special elections, but close result
As a result Tuesday’s special elections to replace two former members of Congress in Florida have taken on a new meaning as Republicans look to blunt a narrative that Trump is beginning to slip.
The seats once held by former U.S. Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz are considered conservative strongholds, and most Democrats acknowledge they has a snowball’s chance in flipping those Sunshine State districts. Trump won Gaetz’s old district with 68% of the vote and Waltz’ with 65%.
Republicans outnumber Democrats by about 2-to-1 in both areas, according to Florida voter data.
“Your vote in this crucial election will help determine whether the radical left will grind Congress to a halt, which is what they want to do — just stop everything, all the progress that we’ve made, which is record-setting,” Trump said during a tele-town hall last Thursday for Republican Jimmy Patronis, who is looking to replace Gaetz in a district that covers the western portion of the Florida Panhandle.
Yet that didn’t stop House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., from predicting their contenders “will significantly overperform” in both contests during a press conference last week.
Part of the reason Democrats are grinning a bit is that Patronis’s opponent, Gay Valimont, who was trounced by 32% last fall, has raised an impressive $6.4 million since January, accord to federal campaign finance records.
The race for the seat once held by Waltz may also give Republicans a bit of heartburn given a new poll shows the race between Republican Randy Fine and Democrat Josh Weil is within the margin of error. The survey of about 400 voters, conducted by St. Pete Polls shows Fine lead with 48% versus Weil at 44%.
Waltz, who now serves as Trump’s national security adviser, won re-election last year by 33%.
Critical (and expensive) Wisconsin Supreme Court race
Further north eyes are now also turning to another battleground state that is being buried beneath a pile of money as Wisconsin voters flock to the polls on Tuesday for a critical state Supreme Court battle.
In one corner is Judge Brad Schimel, who is backed by Trump, and in the other Judge Susan Crawford, who has been supported by Democrats including former vice presidential nominee Tim Walz, of Minnesota.
The race is important because of the Badger State’s swing state status, and its high court will determine how it leans issues such as abortion access, redistricting and elections.
Enter billionaire Elon Musk, a Trump ally who has poured rouighly $20 million toward boosting Schimel in race shattering fundraising records.
More than $81 million has been doled out in total by both sides, according to Brennan Center for Justice, making it the most expensive judicial race in the country. That is far more than the $51 million record set in the Badger State just two years ago.
‘Tight majority’: Trump pulls Stefanik as UN ambassador
Call it a strategic retreat but one obvious sign Trump and the Republicans are a bit nervous was the administration yanking the nomination of Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., a fierce defender of the president, to be the ambassador to the United Nations.
As the Trump 2.0 administration shifts focus to its legislative agenda, managing the GOP’s thin majority in the House will be critical. Trump was open about these concerns, saying in a post on Truth Social that he asked the 40-year-old New York Republican to remain in Congress for that very reason.
“With a very tight majority, I don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat,” he said. .
Republicans hold 218 seats in the House versus the 213 seats held by Democrats, leaving them with only a two-vote margin to play around with.
Jeffries taunted the president, saying it’s another sign Republicans are “running scared.”
Then there are the Virginia and N.J. gubernatorial races
These elections will be scrimmage matches compared to two other 2025 fall campaigns for governor that will be used as thermometers of how voters are feeling about Trump’s takeover.
Both Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, a Democrat, are term limited, which gives both parties run at an open seat.
While New Jersey is considered solidly blue, it may indicate how successful Trump and his allies have been at penetrating Democratic strongholds. But Virginia is still seen as a national bellwether by many political forecasters, who point out that Youngkin’s 2021 victory was the first setback for Democrats during former President Joe Biden’s tenure.
That race could see two polar opposites pitted against each other as Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Va., remains unopposed in the Democratic primary, and Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who is looking to make history as the Old Dominion State’s first Black women governor, is favored to win the GOP nomination.
Given Virginia is home to about 152,300 federal workers, according to the office of personnel management, one can expect it to be a major referendum on Trump and Musk’s cuts to the government workforce.