President Trump pledges to get Greenland “one way or the other”
President Donald Trump pledged to get Greenland “one way or the other” in his speech to Congress.
In one corner: The world’s largest island, 80% of it covered in ice, whose Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede says the Americans and their leader need to understand that Greenland is not for sale; it can’t be taken; it’s “ours.”
In the other corner, President Donald Trump, who appears determined to use the approximately 1,300 days he has left of his second term to acquire the mineral-rich, strategically located Arctic territory, making it America’s 51st state (if Canada doesn’t get there first). Trump plans to get it “one way or the other,” as he said Tuesday night in a joint address before Congress.
Greenland is part of Denmark. It’s been that way since the 19th century. It has its own local government, with a parliament that oversees some domestic and civil affairs. Laws pertaining to Greenland’s defense, national security and economy are controlled by policymakers in Copenhagen, more than 2,000 miles away. Trump first indicated he wanted to buy Greenland in 2019, during his first term. (The U.S. is less than 2,000 miles away.) In his second, he’s refused to rule out economic or military force to take control of it.
Here are five ways the Greenland saga could play out.
Greenland votes for independence, asks to join US
Greenlanders have been debating for several years whether they would be better off as an independent country, something that could happen if a national referendum is held, which Denmark has said it would allow if enough of the population voted to hold such a vote. Independence from Denmark will be a key issue in a parliamentary vote in Greenland on March 11. However, the outcome of the vote won’t have an immediate impact on independence. And while polls have consistently shown that most Greenlanders would prefer to be independent, they only want that if they don’t lose a standard of living that is backed by Denmark’s welfare state.
Since Trump’s fixation on Greenland has re-emerged, opinion polls have indicated the vast majority of Greenlanders don’t want their island to become part of the U.S.
“We don’t want to be Americans, nor Danes. We are Kalaallit,” Egede wrote on Facebook Wednesday, using the Greenlandic Inuit ethnic name for the people of Greenland.
Trump simply tries to buy Greenland
It’s not really clear how the Trump administration would be able to purchase Greenland from Denmark, never mind that Denmark has emphatically stated over and over that it’s not for sale. There’s no obvious legal or commercial pathway for it to happen.
Still, coincidentally, the last foreign territory purchased by the U.S. was from Denmark. It bought the Virgin Islands in 1917 for $25 million. A few subsequent U.S. territorial expansions, in the South Pacific, were the result of annexations and treaties, according to the Global Policy Forum, a watchdog.
Wikistrat, a global risks consultancy, said that one theoretical purchase scenario for Greenland, though it would require agreement from both Greenland and Denmark, could see the U.S. offer to lease Greenland from Denmark for an extended period. This would be similar to what China did with its Hong Kong territory when it leased it to Britain for 99 years from 1898 to 1997. In another theoretical scenario, Greenland could grant what Wikistrat called “minority shares” in its governance to the U.S., primarily in the areas of security and foreign policy. This would mean that the U.S. would likely need to assume about $800 million in annual subsidies now provided by Denmark.
Trump squeezes Greenland and Denmark economically
Trump has been using the threat and imposition of tariffs as a means to achieve his policy goals. In recent days, he’s deployed them on the United States’ three largest trading partners: Canada, Mexico and China. He has also dangled the prospect of using tariffs against the European Union, a 27-nation economic bloc of which Denmark is a member. The U.S. president could drastically increase tariffs on Danish – or even EU – goods to force Denmark into concessions over Greenland. Denmark is a major exporter of pharmaceuticals including insulin. The Danish company Novo Nordisk, for example, makes the diabetes drug Ozempic, which can help with weight loss.
Pillsbury, an international law firm, has concluded that Trump could attempt to impose tariffs on imports from Denmark by invoking the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This act gives the U.S. president broad powers to raise tariffs under the guise of U.S. national and economic security. Russia and China are increasingly showing a greater presence in the Arctic areas near Greenland and it is home to a vast store of valuable deposits of rare earth minerals. The U.S. relies on China and other countries for its rare earth needs.
Trump invades Greenland
A U.S. invasion of Greenland may seem far-fetched and amount to the proverbial nuclear option, though Trump has not explicitly ruled it out. Any such invasion would also, theoretically, trigger NATO’s Article 5, which states that an attack against one member state is an attack against them all. Yet this mutual defense clause is complicated by the fact that Denmark and the U.S. are NATO members.
Plus, in his address to Congress on Tuesday night, Trump said he “strongly” supported Greenland’s “right to determine your own future,” suggesting the military option is unlikely, even if he’s prepared to be persistent in his attempts to absorb Greenland into the U.S.
“I think we’re going to get it,” he said. “One way or the other, we’re going to get it.”
Trump’s Greenland desire wanes
It seems possible Trump could lose interest; that nothing dramatic actually happens.
There already is an important U.S. military base in Greenland, in the northern part of the island, called Thule Air Base. The U.S. could expand its military presence there, with permission from Greenland and Denmark, by deploying additional troops, upgrading its missile defense systems and establishing new Arctic infrastructure.