Canada votes in election scrambled by Trump

Canadian flags line residential streets. Supermarkets label Canadian-made products with maple leafs. “Elbows up,” a defensive hockey maneuver, has become a rallying cry to unite the country against a common enemy – President Donald Trump.

That newfound patriotism will be put to the test as Canadians head to the polls April 28 to elect a prime minister. The race has been defined by Trump’s attacks on Canada, upending the decades-long familial relationship between the two countries amid an unprecedented surge of Canadian nationalism.

“Trump has been the X factor in this campaign,” said Peter Donolo, a Canadian political strategist who served as communications director for former prime minister Jean Chrétien.

Banker versus politician versus Trump

Trump’s threats to annex Canada and snubs of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau – coupled with the punishing tariffs he has levied on the country – pulled the ruling Liberal party out of spiraling approval ratings and could propel Mark Carney, the Liberal candidate and sitting prime minister, to victory over Pierre Poilievre, his conservative opponent.

Carney, a banker and Harvard graduate with little formal political experience, has touted his experience leading the Bank of Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and the Bank of England through Brexit as proof that he is the man to handle a crisis.

Poilievre, a career politician, has carved out a combative conservative brand that has sparked comparisons to Trump. He was endorsed by Elon Musk and ran on a “Canada first” platform.

Trump comments revive Canada’s Liberals

Trump has lobbed insults at Canada at a rapid clip in recent months, saying repeatedly that Canada should become the “51st state” and deriding Trudeau as “Governor Justin Trudeau of the Great State of Canada.” In that time span, the liberals made a startling 20-plus-point comeback in the polls, overtaking the conservatives as election day neared.

“I’ve never seen movements like we’ve seen in this election,” said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Global Public Affairs.

Trump doubles down on Canadian annexation

In the week before the election, polls narrowed. But pollsters say Canadians’ anger at Trump plays to Carney, and Trump last week doubled down on his comments.

In a Tuesday interview with TIME, Trump said his designs on Canadian annexation were “not trolling.”

“We lose $200 to $250 billion a year supporting Canada. And I asked a man who I called Governor Trudeau. I said, ‘Why? Why do you think we’re losing so much money supporting you? Do you think that’s right?’”

“The only way this thing really works is for Canada to become a state,” he added.

On April 27, the day before the election, Carney held the lead, with 42% to Poilievre’s 39%, according to the Canadian Broadcast Company’s poll tracker. Jagmeet Singh of the left-wing New Democrats and Yves-François Blanchet of the separatist Bloc Québécois, hold 9% and 6%, respectively.

A ‘rush to the finish line’

But one polling metric remains steady – Canadian hatred for Trump.

A POLITICO/Focaldata poll conducted from April 18 to 23 found Trump was the top concern for around two in five Canadian voters, second only to the cost of living, which three in five listed as their top issue.

Bricker said Carney and Poilievre were on a “rush to the finish line, with the Conservatives building energy and the Liberals running out of gas.” Every time Trump hits Canada, he adds fuel to Carney’s tank, Bricker said.

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On the campaign trail, Carney and Poilievre are each claiming the mantle as the leader who will stand up to Trump.

“This is Canada. We decide what we do here,” Carney said on Friday. “The president’s latest comments are more proof, as if we needed any, that the old relationship we had with the United States is over.”

“I have a message for President Trump,” Poilievre said last month. “Yes, you’ll do damage to us in the short term. But we will fight back and we will build back.”

Conservative lead vanished under Trump tariffs

Early this year, it looked like the political moment belonged to Poilievre.

Facing an all-time low approval rating of 22% and calls from within his party to step down, Trudeau resigned in early January after a decade as prime minister. Conservatives led the Liberal Party in approval polls by more than 20 points, according to polling averages.

Then, Trump took office. His threats to impose tariffs on Canada crystallized.

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In the span of three months, the Liberals surged to take the lead in approval ratings − and then some. As approval for the Liberals rose, Carney, who replaced Trudeau as Liberal leader and prime minister, called a snap election in late March, hoping to secure a mandate to lead Canada through Trump’s threats.

“Carney just seems to a lot of people like the guy who’s tailor-made for the moment,” Donolo said.

Trump-imposed tariffs loom over election

For Canadians, Trump’s tariffs added injury to insult.

Trump “actually wants to destroy our economy,” Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, said at a business event in Toronto on Thursday.

“He wants to try to take over Canada,” Ford said. “I can tell you, Canada is not for sale. We will never, ever be a 51^st state.”

Ford was at the center of a standoff with Trump last month over the 25% tariff Trump briefly imposed on Canadian and Mexican imports. Ford threatened to levy fees on Canadian electricity supplies to around 1.5 million Americans in retaliation, and Trump said he would double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. Both sides retreated hours later, and Ford took home a popularity boost.

Although Canada – along with most of the globe – was at least temporarily spared from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and the crippling impact they could have had, its economy is already showing signs of strain. Canada’s unemployment rate inched up to 6.7% in March, up one tenth of a percentage point from the month before − a loss of 33,000 jobs.

Trump’s tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum are still standing, and could crush those Canadian industries. Canadian leaders say they won’t go down without a fight, and the pain will also hit Americans.

“Canada will suffer, but the United States is going to suffer too,” said David MacNaughton, who served as Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. during Trump’s first term.

“It’s going to start impacting American workers, American families, and I suspect when it does, things will change,” he said.

‘Elbows up’ movement sweeps Canada

Regardless of the election results, Canadians say the shock of Trump’s actions has punctured their perspective of their neighbor to the south.

The shift is “unthinkably unprecedented,” said Jean Michel Picher, a Canadian campaign strategist who has worked on several U.S. Democratic campaigns. He called it “a cleaving of the relationship.”

“I don’t want to say beyond repair, but it puts the ability for good faith repair in long-term debt,” Picher said.

Picher is now involved in the Canadian “Elbows Up” movement, which aims to unite Canadians in nonpartisan solidarity against Trump’s attacks. The group has drawn thousands to rallies around the country, with the latest held April 26 in Sault Ste. Marie. The slogan gained popularity after Canadian comedian Mike Myers dropped the phrase on Saturday Night Live in a “Canada is not for sale” t-shirt.

Myers later appeared in an “Elbows Up” Mark Carney ad in which the pair appear together in red, Canadian flag-styled hockey jerseys. In the ad, Carney quizzes Myers, who lives in the U.S., on his knowledge of Canadian culture.

“Will there always be a Canada?” Myers asks.

“There will always be a Canada,” Carney replies.