Democrats target House Republicans in swing states, red districts

play

WASHINGTON – House Democrats’ are looking to target Republican incumbents in swing districts across the Rust Belt, upper Midwest and the Sun Belt – as well as several Trump allies who Democrats argue are beatable despite their big wins in 2024.

The party’s congressional campaign arm, released its list of 35 targets for the 2026 midterm elections Tuesday morning and it features 12 incumbents from swing states President Donald Trump narrowly carried in the 2024 presidential election.

The list reflects an optimistic Democratic party that is hoping to capitalize on the base’s frustration with Trump, demonstrated in part by nationwide protests on Saturday.

The party is also riding high from last week’s special elections in Florida and Wisconsin, where their candidates did much better than they did in 2024.

Republicans currently control the House, Senate and the presidency. But the party in the White House typically suffers in the first congressional midterm elections after they come into office, regardless of whether the president is a Republican or Democrat. Trump’s approval ratings are taking a hit as his sweeping tariffs cause the stock market to plunge.

“House Republicans are running scared, and they should be,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairwoman Rep. Suzan DelBene said in a statement. “They’re tanking the economy, gutting Medicaid, abandoning our veterans, and making everything more expensive. In short, they’ve lost the trust of their constituents, and it’s going to cost them the majority.”

Each side’s target lists are an indicator of which congressional districts the parties’ campaign arms will be targeting with party money, which comes from both outside donors and the fundraising committees for current members of Congress.

While Democrats may have an advantage in the midterms given the historical swings between parties, they hold fewer crossover seats than Republicans do. There are 13 Democrats representing districts Trump won in 2024, while only three Republicans hold districts former Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris won.

In the narrowly divided House of Representatives, Democrats would need to flip three House districts, while retaining all of their current seats, to take control of the chamber.

In March, House Republicans’ campaign arm released its target list of 26 Democrat-held seats they hope to win.

“Vulnerable House Democrats have been hard at work demonstrating they are painfully out of touch with hardworking Americans,” National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Rep. Richard Hudson, R-N.C., said in a statement at the time. “Republicans are taking the fight straight to these House Democrats in their districts, and we will unseat them next fall.”

The list includes several House Republicans who are acknowledged to be the among most vulnerable sitting members of Congress, such as Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., who represent the three Harris-won GOP districts.

Other expected incumbents on the list are Rep. Gabe Evans of Colorado, Reps. David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Rep. Tom Barrett of Michigan, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa, and Reps. Ryan Mackenzie and Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, who represent districts considered toss-ups by nonpartisan analysts.

But it also includes several big swings for Democrats: Republicans in heavily GOP-dominated districts that analysts haven’t highlighted.

Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Mo., Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, and Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla. all won their districts by double digits in 2024.

Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky., who will vacate his seat to run for Senate to replace longtime GOP leader Sen. Mitch McConnell, won his last election by almost 30 percentage points – but Democrats are hoping the empty seat and the success of Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in the district will help with the big lift.

Leave a Comment